DiceK's RESULTS, not stats, the last two years:

2008 - 15-12, 4.40

2009 - 18-3, 2.80

After the first year, 2007, longtime readers of D-O-V asked us if we'd lowered our BUY recommendations on DiceK.  They weren't panicking.  Readers had respect for DiceK because of the K's and their understanding of how he works, and all that stuff.  But they wanted to know, after 2008, if DiceK were a bit less of a pitcher than we thought he was.

We replied, in considered tones, that we thought DiceK was as advertised:  a David Cone or Mike Mussina, possibly a bit more.

We watched good number of DiceK starts on MLB Extra Innings, and as we did our judgment solidified that he is certainly one of the best ten starters in the AL.

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===Strikeouts===

DiceK in the majors has 355 strikeouts in 372 innings, essentially a K per inning, that coming in the American (not the National) league.

8+ strikeouts a game is Cy-worthy.  Find me a guy with a K per inning, and I'll find you a guy whose stuff is blinkin' hard to see.

Matsuzaka wound up with all these strikeouts ... why?  because (1) the bewildering assortment of trick pitches is as good as advertised, and (2) the velocity is better than advertised.   He sits at 91-94 with no problems, that being located, and touches 95 frequently.   He can hit 94-95 on the gun any time he wants, but often opts for location.

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=== Walks and Home Runs ===

Matsuzaka's 3.6 walks per ballgame in 2008 was roughly in the Bedard/Kazmir class -- quality control considering the electric stuff, but not super-refined a la Halladay and Sabathia.   Of course, in 2008 those BB's rocketed up to 5, which is pretty much unprecedented for a pitcher of his caliber.

Of course, in Japan he would fan 200 men and walk 35.  What's up with the increase in walks (and in mistakes, since his HR rate is midrange)?

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=== Playing Conditions and Context ===

Matsuzaka is an artist and he is facing really weird conditions from his own point-of-view.  (Consider a serve-and-volley tennis player having to play on clay, or an NBA player adjusting to the international rules, or Pavarotti having to sing rock music.)

Factors that have made Matsuzaka's ability hard-to-read have included:

1.  The early drama over the mound and spikes;

2.  Fenway Park, which has more impact on play than any other park;

3.  Being a flyball pitcher in Fenway Park, which means that it's not wise to challenge;

4.  The American ump'ing and the fact that Matsuzaka is an outsider;

5.  Learning the league, continually adjusting to find his finesse zone for challenging just the right amount with the gaijin umps;

6.  etc.

Still, in 2007 DiceK was leaving the ball in hittable areas a little too often, both with his FB and with his offspeed stuff.  That's a function of his not knowing the hitters, not agreeing with the umps, not being used to the mounds and the cleats and all that.  Note that he gave up 25 homers in 2007, but a mere 12 in 2008.

DiceK doesn't have Sasaki's problem, where Daimajin would heave it down the middle and then act surprised when they launched it.  DiceK has tons of respect for the hitters and is superintelligent.  He was, in 2007, trying to find that spot where they couldn't hit it hard.  In 2008 he made progress in finding that spot.

The difference between DiceK's 2007 and 2008 was not due to bad luck, or inconsistent mechanics, or any of the things we Americans are used to seeing as the reasons between up-and-down seasons for a top pitcher.  DiceK deliberately walked 5 men a game in 2008, and that's because he's a superintelligent pitcher.

Cheers,

Dr D

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image:  http://graphics.boston.com/images/sports/redsox/2008/05_28_08_dicek_1024...